Part two: On the way home from Aspen

By Steven Strong
solardesign.com

As the Forum progressed, we were shown consecutive layers of irrefutable evidence from every discipline that, indeed, climate change was upon us. Luminaries like E.O Wilson told it like it is, speaking of a “brick wall” ahead, with the message that it is past time to get engaged. Lester Brown’s eloquent overview of “Plan B: 3.0” was a clarion call to immediately address the host of intertwined issues now confronting society.

Between sessions, attendees were treated to superb photography from the pros at National Geographic – co-sponsor of the Forum – that provided vivid, visual evidence to corroborate the science. This was extremely effective in that the science of climate change remains abstract, even obtuse to many – whereas visual confirmation that glacial melt is accelerating, the north polar ice cap is fast disappearing while the great ice shelves of Antarctica are collapsing into the sea is a most compelling way to reach those still harboring lingering doubt.

Amory Lovins was there (of course) and, during a session on Peak Oil, gave his usual crisp,stat-filled, dissertation on the progress and promise of technology to dramatically reduce our need for energy by virtue of the multiplicity of efficiency opportunities – nearly all of which are demonstrably less expensive than the business-as-usual scenario of buying imported oil and building more power plants. Amory expounds on this thesis in his book; “Winning the Oil End Game: American Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security.” Those that know Amory understand how compelling his vision can be. His consummate intellect, track record and command of statistics is formidable.

Longtime activist and ASPO co-founder Randy Udall was visibly uncomfortable with Amory’s ever-optimistic view that technology will save us, citing the exponential escalation in world energy demand led by China, India and other developing countries as the try to pull themselves up by the bootstraps out of poverty and into the 21^st century to enjoy some of the comforts and conveniences that we in western society have come to take completely for granted.

Randy’s challenge projected a clear sense of urgency that Peak Oil is indeed upon us and that we must begin in earnest to plan for the inevitable accommodations that will follow. He pointed out that society has squandered many years of time critical to the ramp-up necessary for a manageable transition and that time for action was now.

For his part, Shell senior executive, Marvin Odum acknowledged that world demand for energy would indeed outstrip supply of “conventional” [petroleum] sources by as early as 2015. His response, was however, more predictable as he cited Shell’s research into “unconventional” sources such as Canadian tar sands and the vast deposits of oil shale in western Colorado – implying (but certainly not promising) that these “future” sources would be available in time to offset the confirmed decline in conventional supplies. He completely ignored the obvious: that these sources are far from in hand, will demand large amounts of water and energy to extract, will significantly increase CO2 and will certainly cost substantially more than today’s already sky-high prices – even under the best possible scenarios.

It seemed to me that Marvin was walking a delicate tightrope between current circumstances the Forum had clearly defined; the standard set of Shell talking points and what he personally believed – which was never really made clear. Some suggested that it was significant in itself that Shell had sponsored the Forum and was participating in the dialogue – pointing out that getting business on side is critical to making meaningful progress.

As the conference continued, two key underlying issues emerged above all others: How much time is left to address the issues before us and, how can we best sound the alarm to energize response in Washington.

Jim Kunstler gave his usual rant with vigor, painting a dire picture of the end of industrial civilization as we know it – especially in America. Kunstler’s presentation is essentially a raw, culture-specific rendition of Pulitzer-prize-winning author, Dr. Jared Diamond’s book: “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed”.

In “Collapse”, Diamond cites many factors that contributed to a society’s collapse, but emphasizes the one factor all history’s failed societies had in common was mismanagement of natural resources. (Forum organizers tried but were unable to get Diamond to speak.)

With bravado and a few four-letter words thrown in for color, Kunstler described a social infrastructure based on high volumes of cheap petroleum that could not be sustained and was already visibly crumbling under its own weight.

He describes the average American – which he fondly refers to as “Lumpkins” – as living in a clueless fog of delusional entitlement and self indulgence. A situation he points out is reinforced periodically by authoritative pronouncements from our national leaders that: “The American way of life is non-negotiable”.

His main thesis is that American agriculture,our automobile culture, our “McBuildngs”, settlement patterns and air transportation as we know them are far too energy intensive to continue as the coming post-petroleum transition unfolds and, that our intensive dependence of diminishing fossil fuels will ultimately lead to a train-wreck crisis of unimaginable proportions because there is no “solution” in hand or even envisioned that can support our current ‘business-as-usual’ program – a scenario that he details in his book: “The Long Emergency”.

Of course, Jim Kunstler’s vision of the future is in sharp contract to that defined by Amory Lovins where the necessary technology is readily at hand and the solutions so obvious that the market alone can be counted upon to implement the necessary fixes with dispatch because it is so profitable to do so.

Amory’s case is derived by extrapolating current technology and draws upon many real-world examples. His book, “Winning the Oil End Game” is peer-reviewed, meticulously annotated and cross-referenced replete with 12 technical annexes.

The standing-room-only event that was not included at the Forum would have been a debate between Lovins and Kunstler.

I believe the key deciding factor now determining our future is:Can we overcome our current paralysis? If recent experience is any guide to the future, there is the real risk that the current foot-dragging, ideology wars and outright obfuscation will continue and our society could well manage to ignore the growing warning signs long enough so that time for meaningful action simply runs out.

Key take-home points from the Forum:

§ Climate change science is solid and, if anything, too conservative. Many consequences predicted by the elaborate climate models are actually happening fasten than expected. This is especially true with ice loss in the polar regions and mountain glaciers.

§ Many technical options are defined and ready to respond to climate change with efficiency being the easiest, fastest and least expensive. Efficiency provides multiple benefits (reduces emissions, backs out of oil dependence, improves national security at low cost and needs little-to-no O&M.

§ A properly implemented, broad-based efficiency program can and will also help us buy some time to ramp up other responses – such as renewables and hybrid / electric vehicles.

§ The business community generally has acknowledged that climate change is real and must be dealt with and, is (in many cases) asking for regulation to establish the ground rules going forward to minimize uncertainty. Nearly all the big players compete in the international marketplace and realize they must conform to international standards (which are far ahead of the US).

§ The environmental community must seek dialogue and common cause with the business community. For meaningful change to come in the time frame that is necessary, we need everyone engaged and pulling together toward the same goal.

§ The transition brought upon us by climate change and peak oil will not be an easy one under any circumstances. However, there will be significant opportunity to change things for the better as a result.

§ The most important major factor going forward is getting the story out on climate change far and wide to help drive consensus on action sooner rather than later as time is running very short. This election cycle provides an especially critical opportunity.

As the last day of the Forum drew to a close, I requested a wake-up call from the front desk to ensure making my early morning flight home. Fortunately, one of my idiosyncratic capabilities is to wake up just before the alarm clock goes off – because the wake-up call never came.

I hope our society gets the crucial wake-up call in time.

Maybe Al Gore can help reach the critical tipping point. He appeared on 60 Minutes this past Sunday and pledged to spend $300M on a massive public campaign to get the message out on climate change.

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